Most Recent Episode
Cem Karsan: Iran Headlines, Oil Control, and Why Markets Move in Stair Steps Breaking news hits and Michele Steele is joined by Cem Karsan to map the geopolitics, vol structure, inflation regime, and the market microstructure driving today’s move.
Cem explains why he sees this as a broader global conflict centered on oil domi
Time: 27:36
Breaking news hits and Michele Steele is joined by Cem Karsan to map the geopolitics, vol structure, inflation regime, and the market microstructure driving today’s move.
Cem explains why he sees this as a broader global conflict centered on oil dominance, the petrodollar, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with China and Russia as the real adversaries rather than Iran itself. He argues it is not a black swan and that the pressures behind it have been building for years, feeding into structural inflation and high leverage risks in private credit and private equity.
They break down why markets can fall in “stair steps” with vol compression, why the index can be down modestly while dispersion explodes across single names, and why today’s end of quarter options mechanics can overpower headlines. Cem walks through a major recurring JP Morgan hedge roll, at-the-money zero DTE gamma, and how those flows can create violent intraday swings and vol compression.
Cem also discusses a dispersion setup in SLNO and closes with a blunt message: fundamentals are awful, hedges are not working, and the environment can bleed dip buyers with sideways action followed by sharp down moves, potentially pushing the market far lower into late summer or early fall.
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Chapters
00:00 - Breaking headline hits
00:57 - Cem: precisely on schedule
01:26 - This is about China
02:06 - Hormuz and petrodollar
03:25 - Stair step decline
03:55 - Vol implosion explained
04:29 - Forecast scorecard
05:02 - More vol compression
05:59 - Midterm year parallels
06:55 - Not about black swans
08:48 - Control oil to China
10:14 - US energy independence
10:57 - Best case unlikely
11:55 - Resolution is not resolution
15:26 - Quarter end options flows
15:55 - JP Morgan hedge roll
16:54 - Zero DTE gamma magnet
18:48 - Flows over headlines
20:06 - SLNO dispersion pick
21:56 - Cash flow math
23:58 - Fundamentals are awful
25:53 - Sell rips, stair steps
26:52 - Down 25 to 35% target
27:31 - Buckle up, be water
GUID: stocktwitstv.podbean.com/cf72fb22-b610-3dfb-a84d-5e24deb692c8
Release Date: 31/03/2026, 21:38:37
