The Federal Reserve's look-through doctrine works when energy shocks mean-revert. The 1973–74 OPEC episode is the case where it didn't, and the modern record shows the framework cannot tell, in real time, which kind of shock it is operating on. The Iran war presents four channels — chokepoint tolls, alliance fracture, reserve diversification, fiscal commitment — on which the price is unlikely to revert on the funds-rate cycle. The 2026 Committee has begun by treating this as one of the cases the doctrine handles correctly. The archive suggests it is one of the others.

Episode ID: 1000765814960

GUID: https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-analogue

Release Date: 02/05/2026, 01:00:00